College football rankings: What my eye test says about the four best teams in college football

As the College Football Playoff committee works through its data points and its own “eye test” to seed the 12 best teams in the sport over the next three weeks, it got me thinking about the best teams I have seen in person this year. In my 15 years of covering major college football, it’s clear that watching a game in person provides so much more context and a better understanding to inform ratings and rankings.

So far I have seen six of the CFP’s top 12 teams. Included in that group are the three highest-ranked teams in the rankings: Oregon, Ohio State and Texas. I’ve seen Georgia, too, which means I’ve seen the top four teams in the preseason AP and coaches polls. I’ve watched countless hours of film as well, and after much thought, I decided to sit down and share my findings and determine, mostly based on my “eye test,” the four best teams I’ve seen in person this season. For what it’s worth, these four teams also have the best odds to win the national championship, according to Caesars Sportsbook. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code ‘CBS1000’ to claim this offer.

Three of those four teams remain in the top four of the CFP rankings today, with only Georgia as the outlier. It’s obviously not a stretch to consider the No. 10 Bulldogs a legitimate title contender with three wins against top-25 teams, including a road victory at No. 3 Texas, so we’ll include them in this thought experiment.

1. Oregon 
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Texas

My thoughts on Oregon

When I saw them: 10/12 vs. Ohio State in Eugene (32-31 W)

If you have followed my writings since the spring, you know I long believed Oregon would win the Big Ten in its first season in the conference. After watching them hold off Ohio State in a 32-31 thriller in Eugene, the Ducks solidified that stance, proving to be the best overall team in the country. They ranked No. 3 in the preseason and are rightfully the consensus No. 1-ranked team in college football currently. 

As I said in the spring, there are two rosters best equipped to navigate a dangerous schedule while remaining healthy enough to play several playoff games and win a national title: Oregon and Georgia. Dan Lanning built a roster replete with depth in the trenches and a veteran gamer at quarterback (Dillon Gabriel). Because of that, they were able to survive three weeks of musical chairs along the offensive line  (at least 10 different lineups were used because of injuries in September), and then beat the most-talented roster in the country despite losing pass rusher Jordan Burch just 48 hours before kickoff against the Buckeyes.

The Ducks, however, are no shoe-in to beat the Buckeyes in a rematch.

Why? Well, read the next section. 

My thoughts on Ohio State

When I saw them: 10/12 vs. Oregon in Eugene (32-31 loss)

For as much flack Ryan Day receives for falling short in big games (mostly against Michigan), the talent level in Columbus is immense. On any other night, perhaps Ohio State rallies and beats Oregon on the road. The deciding factor in that game, I still believe, was OSU’s reluctance to be more creative in the running game. If they leaned more on Quinhson Judkins and Co., OSU wins that game in Eugene.

My thoughts on Georgia

When I saw them: 8/31 vs. Clemson in Atlanta (34-3 win)

Georgia, like Oregon, is built to win it all — and, make no mistake, Lanning built his roster with the blueprint of his mentor, Kirby Smart, in mind. Unlike Oregon, however, Georgia doesn’t have a veteran gamer at quarterback, a superstar capable of taking over a game and delivering three or four big plays in the critical moments. Carson Beck has been serviceable, if not entirely inconsistent. In Week 1, the Bulldogs looked the part of the nation’s top team when I watched them thrash Clemson in Atlanta. The most impressive takeaway was how Smart and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo adjusted the game plan on offense after halftime, opting to attack the edges with short throws and the speed of the tailbacks to open up the middle of the field. When that happened, Beck calmed down in the pocket and delivered two big passes down the middle of the field, and suddenly more options developed as receivers like London Humphreys and Colbie Young (now suspended) stepped up.

That seemed to disappear in big games later on the schedule. Was the 31-17 win against Tennessee last week a much-needed reversion to what I saw in the second half in Week 1? Beck was on point again, finding new and varying options, delivering 10 passes to the tight ends for 130 of his 347 passing yards. That safety valve could prove to be the key to rebuilding Beck’s confidence and increasing the Bulldogs’ chances to win the national championship. 

My thoughts on Texas

When I saw them: 11/16 vs. Arkansas in Fayetteville (20-10 win) 

 Meanwhile, Texas has mostly been stuck in cruise control this season. The Longhorns have only one loss — a double-digit stinker at home against Georgia — but sneakily own seven wins of 19-plus points, tying Oregon for the most in the country. Their biggest win is arguably against Vanderbilt. The resumé is weak, but the talent is incredible. They have exceeded or matched every team in the talent department on the field this season.

As I wrote Saturday after watching the Longhorns in person against Arkansas, they are capable of playing with their food or devouring it. Something, however, is holding them back. Is the play of quarterback Quinn Ewers, who seemingly gives up on plays a moment too soon when the pocket collapses? Perhaps it’s Steve Sarkisian, who is more reluctant this season to call deep shots on offense. Either way, the defense is among the best I’ve seen this season. They sacked Arkansas six times and defensive back Jahdae Barron lived up to the hype with an interception, two tackles for loss and a sack — and should get serious consideration to win the Thorpe Award.

College football has slowly, but surely, transitioned into a more unpredictable sport among the power teams. There’s more talent than ever in the power conferences, but that talent is also more spread out within those borders. Coaching still matters, and down the stretch the best coaching staffs will get the best out of the four aforementioned contenders.

Oregon and Georgia are in a position to do just that, but Ohio State’s road seems a tad more favorable.

Analytics can mislead, and our eyes can fool us, too. That’s why we play the games.

MORE: Brandon Marcello’s latest power rankings, featuring Indiana and Notre Dame in top five