A ‘bad deal’ from the U.S. on Ukraine could set harmful precedent for Taiwan, Joly says

Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly warns a bad peace deal for Ukraine could have implications for Taiwan, the self-governing island which faces the threat of annexation from neighbouring China.

Ms. Joly, whose government has boosted ties with Taiwan significantly in recent years, including an investment deal, was responding to the televised confrontation Friday between U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.

In comments she repeated for both a Vancouver business audience and later to reporters, Ms. Joly warned that China is watching the Ukraine conflict to draw lessons for its goal of seizing Taiwan.

“The U.S. must be able to send a clear message to China particularly when it comes to a potential invasion of Taiwan,” Ms. Joly told journalists at the Port of Vancouver.

“President Trump cannot have a bad deal on Ukraine, because China is looking on the other side of the ocean to see what type of deal” is reached, she said.

The Communist Party of China considers Taiwan a breakaway province despite the fact it has never ruled the island, where nationalist forces retreated after losing the Chinese Civil War more than 70 years ago. Beijing seeks to annex the island and has not ruled out using force. China has staged military exercises near Taiwan more than 10 times since 2018. The U.S. military has said that China aims to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

China again this week warned Taiwan it would eventually control the island.

For decades the United States’ security partnership with Taiwan has protected the island against Chinese aggression but the return of Mr. Trump to the White House has raised doubts.

Mr. Trump told Bloomberg during the 2024 presidential election campaign that he “wouldn’t feel too secure if I was [Taiwan]” and suggested the island should pay the U.S. for its defence.

On Thursday, China’s defence ministry, asked about Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military exercises later this year, said Taiwan was “like a mantis trying to stop a chariot” and “sooner or later we will take you back”.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said in a statement Friday that China has recently been escalating its military threats in the region, destroying the status quo of regional stability, and has become the biggest “troublemaker” in the international community.

“This year marks the 80th anniversary of [the end of] World War Two, and history has proven that any form of aggression and expansion will end in failure,” it said. “The actions of the Communist military in recent years are repeating the mistakes of the invaders and pushing China towards defeat.”

Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying only the Taiwanese people can decide their future.

Speaking at a separate event in Taipei to mark a 1947 uprising against Chinese republican troops in Taiwan, known as the “228 Incident,” Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said China has not given up its attempts to take Taiwan by force.

“The greatest threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty, Taiwan’s democracy and Taiwan’s people being their own master, comes from China,” he said.

With files from Reuters