LAS VEGAS — Sam Brown, a first-time candidate in Nevada who could tip control of the upper chamber this November, can score an upset against first-term Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen, GOP leaders say.
Brown, 40, a combat veteran who survived massive burn injuries during a 2008 incident in Afghanistan when a roadside bomb exploded under his vehicle’s fuel tank, trails 67-year-old Rosen by 10.7 percentage points in the current RealClear Politics polling average.
Tim Walz and Kamala Harris greet Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev., and Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., at a campaign rally on Aug. 10, 2024, in Las Vegas. AP
Former President Donald Trump is in a virtual Silver State tie with VP Kamala Harris. The Democrat nominee has a 0.6% RCP average poll lead, well within the margin of error. But one insider from Brown’s campaign said their internal polls are showing the Senate race is also within the margin of error.
Although the late Democrat Sen. Harry Reid — who spent 30 years in the Senate including eight as majority leader — remains an influential presence here three years after his death, there are signs Nevada could tip towards the GOP, especially if Trump carries the state this year.
Two years ago, Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, whose father preceded Reid as Nevada Senator, lost a Senate bid to Catherine Cortez Masto by 8,000 votes. That’s roughly four ballots per precinct, per Montana Sen. Steve Daines, who heads up the GOP’s Senate campaign arm. Bad 2022 election day weather — snow in northern Nevada and light rain in the southern part of the state — may have held back GOP turnout, he added.
That’s not to mention the uphill battle for turnout in midterm elections with no presidential candidates topping the ticket, which was the case in 2022. Daines insisted that in 2024, however, trends favor the GOP.
J.D. Vance greets Sam Brown during a July 30 rally in Henderson, near Las Vegas. JASON BEAN/RGJ / USA TODAY NETWORK
“Remember, on that night … Joe Lombardo was also elected governor,” Daines said. So Nevada elected a Republican governor in 2022, the only Republican governor pickup in the nation” that year.
Brown’s “voters haven’t come home yet,” Daines said of the state’s Republicans, “but they will come home.” He said that efforts from groups such as the Club for Growth, which is pledging $2 million in support of Brown’s bid, will also pay off.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who chaired the GOP Senate campaign arm last midterm election cycle, was equally optimistic about Brown’s prospects when speaking with reporters last week.
“I think Sam’s going to win,” said Scott, who’s angling for majority leader if Republicans regain control of the Senate. “He’s clearly a war hero, he went to serve this country. He’s got the right views. He knows that we can’t have have government that has no accountability. We’ve got to support Israel. We’ve got to destroy Hamas.”
Rosen has counterpunched Brown’s campaign with ads claiming the Republican would support a nationwide abortion ban, which he denies. She claimed in a statement Brown “will say anything to get elected as he tries to cover up his decade-long opposition to abortion rights.”
But the Brown campaign insider said Rosen’s abortion refrain is an attempted deflection from issues affecting Nevadans’ pocketbooks.
“They only want to talk about abortion because Jackie’s record on housing affordability, on voting, for spending packages that just have increased inflation, increased our national debt, which hits everyone in the pocketbook,” the insider said of the Rosen campaign.
Rosen and Brown will meet Oct. 17 in a televised debate hosted by KLAS-TV in Las Vegas. Their discussion will be simulcast in Reno and then later aired locally in Spanish by Univision.
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