Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is projected to secure a third term in the Senate, according to Decision Desk HQ, defeating Republican Eric Hovde and handing Democrats a key hold in a battleground state.
The “toss up” race was considered a must-win for Democrats. It was perhaps the GOP’s best shot at picking up a Democratic-held Senate seat outside of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, and Baldwin’s victory could help limit Republicans’ ability to extend their Senate majority.
The contest had narrowed considerably in the final weeks and polls showed Hovde nipping at Baldwin’s heels. Democratic operatives said that GOP-leaning men came home to the party as the race drew to a close.
However, it was not enough to topple Baldwin in what was her toughest reelection fight since she won the seat in 2012, having won by a wide margin six years ago in a midterm cycle.
Democrats were confident that Baldwin would survive, arguing that she could win even if former President Trump carried the state.
But Republicans sensed an opportunity to take down what many on the GOP side viewed as a Democrat who had not done much to separate herself from the party’s brand.
Hovde was heavily recruited to run by top Republican officials in Washington and Wisconsin. He was also the beneficiary of top party brass essentially clearing the primary field, allowing him to sidestep a potentially rough-and-tumble intra party fight in mid-August that would have proved costly and hurt him less than three months later.
That exact scenario happened six years ago and allowed Baldwin to skate to a second term in office.
He was also the latest in a string of GOP candidates who were able to largely bankroll their operation. Hovde loaned his campaign $20 million as of the end of September.
That brought attacks from Democrats who attempted to paint him as a carpetbagger who was parachuting into the state to win a Senate seat after spending years in California. Baldwin’s campaign spent heavily during the summer in an effort to define Hovde to the masses, including labeling him a “jerk” over some of his business activity and practices.
The lone debate between Baldwin and Hovde featured both candidates arguing they had greater ties to Wisconsin.
“I’m supposedly the jerk from California. Yet, I’m born and raised here in this state, spent my last 12 years living where you grew up,” Hovde said. “I’m a [University of Wisconsin] grad, you’re not.”
Baldwin responded that she was.
“Law school, not undergrad,” Hovde shot back.
Hovde had some missteps during the campaign, including questioning the ability of nursing home residents to vote given that they, in his experience, “have a five-, six-month life expectancy.”
“Almost nobody in a nursing home is at a point to vote,” he said during a radio interview in April.
Hovde previously ran in the 2012 GOP Senate primary where he fell short against former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). Thompson ended up losing in the general election to Baldwin.
Across the aisle, Republicans launched a number of attacks centered around Baldwin’s refusal to disclose assets, investments and business dealings of Maria Brisbane, her partner and a top Wall Street wealth adviser.
Spouses of lawmakers are required to release that information, but because Baldwin and Brisbane are not married they do not fall under that rule.
Baldwin was the first openly gay person to be elected to the Senate 12 years ago and has been dating Brisbane since 2018. She pointedly told Hovde during their debate to “stay out of my personal life.”
Part of the reason the issue came up is because the Wisconsin Democrat helms an appropriations subcommittee that oversees the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Institutes of Health, and Brisbane managed a biotech mutual fund.
“Sen. Baldwin, I could care less about your personal life but when your partner is investing in companies that you’re overseeing and you’re not disclosing that, that’s an absolute conflict of interest,” Hovde retorted.
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