Vice President Harris has a slight lead in each of the key “blue wall” states that could be critical to her path to the presidency, a new poll found.
The Marist Poll released Friday showed Harris leading former President Trump by 3 points in Michigan and 2 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The results are a slight improvement for Harris in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and slight decline for her in Michigan, compared to Marist’s poll in September, but she maintained her advantage across the board.
Still, all of these results are within the margin of error.
The three blue wall states may be Harris’s simplest path to winning the White House, as they have played a key role in both of the past two elections in 2016 and 2020. She is polling better there than the Sun Belt states and would likely win the election if she takes all three next week.
In her strongest state, Michigan, Harris leads Trump with 51 percent to 48 percent. Her lead was at 5 points in September.
But she improved her margin among independents from 2 points to 6 points, the same margin that President Biden carried Michigan independents by in 2020.
Harris leads in Pennsylvania with 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, an uptick from when they were tied in September at 49 percent each. The Keystone State saw a significant shift in independents, with Harris taking a 15-point lead among them, compared to Trump’s 4-point lead in this group in September.
She also leads 50 percent to 48 percent in Wisconsin, where she led by 1 point in September. She saw an improvement with independents here, too, from 4 points to 6 points, but it’s below the 12-point margin Biden had in the state in 2020.
Pollsters also found a significant gender gap in each state, though some of them are not as pronounced as they were in 2020.
Harris leads among women by 11 points in Michigan, 8 points in Pennsylvania and 12 points in Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead among men by 6 in Michigan, 4 in Pennsylvania and 9 in Wisconsin. The gender gap is at 17 points in Michigan and 12 points in Pennsylvania, according to the polls, large gaps but down from 24 points in Michigan and 22 points in Pennsylvania from four years ago.
The polls also found Democratic Senate candidates slightly ahead in each state. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) leads former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) by 6 points in Michigan, Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) leads Republican Dave McCormick by 2 points in Pennsylvania and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leads Republican Eric Hovde by 3 points in Wisconsin.
The polls were conducted from Oct. 27-30 among 1,214 likely voters in Michigan, 1,400 likely voters in Pennsylvania and 1,330 likely voters in Wisconsin. The margin of error was 3.5 points in Michigan, 3.4 points in Pennsylvania and 3.4 points in Wisconsin.
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