The incoming administration of Donald Trump is inheriting a house on fire in the Middle East, but there is a big opportunity for a win there if his new team is prepared to be bold.
It will require some risky foreign policy moves that might not align with his campaign’s domestic focus — but down this path may lie a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump.
“Trump wants to ‘win,’” said Robert Hamilton, Head of Eurasia Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “It could range from prevailing in a war with Iran to brokering a wide-ranging regional peace deal.”
It would also be a fundamental shift from the Biden administration’s approach, which often appeared indecisive and risk-averse, and focused more on de-escalation than solutions. In many Arab countries, where weakness is disdained, there is openness to a paradigm shift.
Donald Trump visited the Western Wall in 2017. AFP/Getty Images
Such a shift would involve risking escalation with Iran, where the threat of force may be needed. It would also require offering not only the expected support but tough love to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose supporters are jubilantly expecting a free hand on all fronts.
Trump’s foreign policy cabinet choices up to now are certainly in line with the former. Senator Marco Rubio (headed to State), Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor), and Pete Hegseth (Defense) are all different types of appointments — Rubio stands out as a widely perceived pragmatist — but all are Iran hawks.
If Trump succeeds in any of this — plus in ending the Ukraine war on terms not considered a capitulation to Vladimir Putin — it would be a legacy-building validation for a new-old president who has generally not enjoyed much credit around the world.
This is a roadmap the next administration could take to make the Middle East great again.
Iran: An ultimatum?
“This regime can no longer be appeased,” Rubio said recently of Iran’s mullahs — and turning that into policy would be a huge step in the right direction.
It could come down to something simple: Iran must abandon its proxy militias and nuclear program or face consequences. An ultimatum would be a clear break from the “re-engagement” approach of Biden, who, like his predecessors, allowed the regime to spread chaos through proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq.
“This regime can no longer be appeased,” Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, said recently of Iran’s mullahs. REUTERS
Hezbollah is now badly battered by Israel but Iran is still at it: dispatching Shiite militias and Houthi fighters from Yemen to the failed state of Syria, from which to assist Hezbollah, threaten neighboring Israel, and potentially destabilize US ally Jordan.
An ultimatum would risk war, but allowing the mullahs to stay in power as a nuclear-threshold state may be the bigger risk. An attack on Iran could spark a revolt against the hated regime, which presides over 30% inflation and a three-month fall of 25% in the value of the rial, in part due to its unpopular funding of foreign wars. It could collapse, which would be a favor to the world.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born Israeli Middle East analyst, agreed that “the Iranians fear another uprising and feel weaker than in the past” but cautioned that “they will be more amenable to a negotiation with Trump” than capitulation.
Qatar: End the double game
While Qatar hosts America’s Al Udeid Air Base, it has also been a haven for Hamas, allowing the group to operate on its soil and channel funds into Gaza.
Hamas leaders currently based in Qatar include Khaled Mashal, the group’s envoy abroad, and Khalil al-Hayya, a senior adviser. There are reports that Qatar is close to agreeing to expelling them — a great start.
While Qatar hosts America’s Al Udeid Air Base (above), it has also been a haven for Hamas, allowing the group to operate on its soil and channel funds into Gaza. EPA
Ending Qatar’s double game would be appreciated by the Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia, whose collaboration will be needed for the rest of the plan. Trump’s team should also consider a global hunt for jihadi funding networks, a complex web of skullduggery across Europe and the U.S. that has enabled Hamas to function.
For Qatar, the days of quietly funding militant activities while claiming US alliance may soon be over.
Lebanon: Demand accountability
Hezbollah receives an estimated $700 million a year from Iran and, until recently, controlled perhaps a quarter of Lebanon and used the country’s south as a launching pad against Israel. The group has bombarded the north for about a year, since the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre, even before Israel sent a single soldier into Gaza.
Now that Israel has thrashed Hezbollah, a deal may be reached even before Trump’s inauguration on the Lebanese military reclaiming the south — perhaps with help from the Arab League or even an international force.
Hezbollah soldiers saluted as the coffin of Hezbollah fighter Mohamad Bader el Dine who was killed in an Israeli drone strike on his car on August 14, arrives for his funeral on August 15, 2024, in Harouf, Lebanon. Getty Images
Either way, the clear message should be: Allowing Hezbollah to operate is no longer acceptable.
Jonathan ElKhoury, a Lebanese-born and Israel-based geopolitics analyst, assesses that Lebanon is ready for a change.
“The current war has seen a significant decline in the support Hezbollah receives… including within the ranks of the Shiite community,” said ElKhoury, who closely follows sentiment in his home country. “The Lebanese army has remained neutral and is able to enforce sovereignty in southern Lebanon, with financial support and additional forces stationed in the region.”
Yemen: Defend global trade
The Houthis, a militant group aligned with Iran, have not only brought devastation to Yemen but have also disrupted a third of global container traffic and about a sixth of overall maritime trade — with audacious attacks on at least 130 commercial ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the past year, justified as “solidarity” with Palestinians.
Biden’s response, limited to a few airstrikes coordinated with British forces, failed to deter them.
Several Middle Eastern hotspots demand attention. NY Post
According to IMF data, weekly trade through the Suez Canal plummeted from over 5 million weekly metric tons to under 2 million because of this, with a corresponding rise in maritime traffic around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. That’s a hugely expensive proposition that has also deprived distressed Egypt of $6 billion in revenue, according to Trade Winds News.
The Trump administration might tell the Houthis that further aggression would be met with overwhelming force, signaling that economic stability and freedom of navigation are American priorities, not bargaining chips.
Israel: Support — with boundaries
Yes, Trump’s team, especially ambassador-designate Mike Huckabee, loves Israel — but that doesn’t mean they will support every machination of Netanyahu.
The Prime Minister has schemed to put off an inquiry commission into the debacle of Oct. 7 until after fighting ends, and that argues for the kind of forever-war Trump despises.
Yes, Trump’s team, especially ambassador-designate Mike Huckabee, claims to love Israel — but that doesn’t mean they will support every machination of Netanyahu. ABIR SULTAN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Unlike with Lebanon, there is an Israeli complication here: Netanyahu’s coalition depends on far-right parties that want to occupy and settle Gaza, and it is blocking the replacement of Hamas with a rejuvenated Palestinian Authority, which is the only plausible option.
If Israel agreed to that, and to new talks on a settlement with the Palestinians, it could persuade Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords — perhaps Trump’s biggest first-term success.
Indeed, that’s what incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, a real estate investor with a direct line to Trump, is there for. The message to Netanyahu would be: The US stands with Israel when it comes to fighting jihadi terrorists, but we must then reestablish the 2020 plan on Palestinian statehood that you’ve already agreed to.
In Trump’s view, and also that of many Israelis, a demilitarized Palestinian state would actually benefit Israel, preserving its Jewish majority. Netanyahu has so lionized Trump that Israelis will expect him to not show the disrespect he heaped on Biden.
Turkey: A NATO ally under scrutiny
Getting Turkey’s President Erdogan to cease support for Hamas would be a major step in the right direction, critics believe. AP
Trump could demand that Turkey cease its support for Hamas and abandon flirtations with Russia — emphasizing that support for terrorists is incompatible with obligations as a NATO ally. Additionally, he might press Turkey to finally acknowledge its role in the Armenian genocide, encouraging a reconciliation with history that could pave the way for a more transparent relationship and a healthy environment in the South Caucasus.
Sunni Arab Allies: A bolder partnership
The moderate Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, might find themselves pushed toward a bolder stance on Hamas and its kin — not just mutterings, but a clear and irreversible break from the various mafias that destabilize the region.
Trump met with Saudi Arabia’s controversy-courting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his first term. REUTERS
The Sunni states might be asked to support a Palestinian state being demilitarized. If Israel goes along, and Saudi Arabia joins the circle of peace, the next domino should be a Sunni-Israeli-US security alliance as a bulwark against Iran.
The Palestinians: Demands for reform
The Palestinian Authority should continue to receive US backing — Israel’s security services want that — but also show genuine reform: An end to anti-Semitic rhetoric in educational materials, no flirtation with Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and acceptance of demilitarization.
Trump’s administration might engineer a walk-back from the long-standing demand for an “end of claims” in exchange for independence, which has driven maximalism, in order to seal the deal. For the PA, this could be a transformative opportunity to finally get a state.
Dan Perry is the former Associated Press regional editor for Europe, Africa and the Middle East, chaired the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and authored two books about Israel. Follow him at danperry.substack.com
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