How Alabama’s lottery and gambling debate could impact 2026 elections

In Alabama, where crimson red isn’t just a team color but a political identity, few things rally voters like Donald Trump or a hot-button constitutional amendment.

Back in 2018, voters didn’t flinch at making bold statements at the ballot box—59% backed a constitutional “Right to Life” provision, and an overwhelming 71% gave the green light to displaying the Ten Commandments in public spaces. And when Trump is on the ticket? He consistently rakes in over 60% of the vote—nearly 65% last November alone.

However, support for a state lottery eclipses even these strong numbers, suggesting it’s a less divisive issue.

Alabamians likely won’t get a chance to vote on legalizing a lottery until after the 2026 statewide elections, when the governor’s race, other top offices, and legislative seats will be settled.

Even with last year’s headline-grabbing failure of a sweeping lottery and gambling bill, along with another proposal quickly snuffed out this session, political insiders aren’t sure the issue will catch fire on the campaign trail.

“Not everything that is popular is a vote-motivating issue,” said Brent Buchanan, a Republican pollster. “There is not a public groundswell to pass lottery or gaming. The best way to look at the issue is that no one is going to lose an election over passing it or not passing it.”

Top issues

Campaign experts are divided over whether the issue will break through with voters, who were saturated with culture war messaging ahead of the 2022 races. The ads that drew the most attention included those with politicians firing guns and slamming LGBTQ rights.

Angi Horn, a Republican strategist based in Montgomery, doesn’t see gambling breaking into voters’ top tier.

“You’re worried about the economy, education, and you’re much more worried about transportation and infrastructure,” Horn said. “If you ask people for their opinion on gambling, they have one that is for it or against it. But regardless of the opinion on the issue, for the vast majority of Alabama voters, it’s not the issue that keeps you up at night.”

Jon Gray, a Mobile-based GOP strategist whose clients included gaming interests last session, said candidates can expect to face voters, and campaign advertising, on their lottery and gambling decisions.

He said that senators who voted against the comprehensive gambling and lottery package last year are especially targeted. The plan last year failed to pass the Alabama Senate by one vote – the closest the issue had gotten to passage since 1999, when voters were last given an opportunity to weigh in on legalizing a lottery.

“Every one of these senators better strap it on,” Gray said. “It will be, 100 percent, a campaign issue.”

Gray cites a poll taken by former Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway’s firm that showed 80% backing for lottery in Alabama. The legalization of gambling had close to 60% support, according to last year’s polling. The polling included 60% of its participants identify as Republican.

He described people as “furious” over a lack of a chance to vote on lottery. Alabama is one of only five states without a lottery. Nevada, which has long had legalized gambling but no lottery, could advance a measure this spring that would bring the list down to four.

Related content: Lottery-only bill for Alabama: Political solution or ‘pie in the sky’ dream?

Gray said lawmakers who voted against the package last year but who live near a bordering state with lottery are “going to get their lunch eaten on the lottery issue because they didn’t do anything on that.” Some of those lawmakers who voted “no” live adjacent to Tennessee, Georgia, Florida and Mississippi – all lottery states.

Greg Davis, president & CEO with the Alabama Citizens Action Program (ALCAP), a non-profit group representing hundreds of churches in the state, said he cannot see the issue becoming a priority given a lack of “grassroots” movement.

 “There are people who are not frothing at the mouth to have a casino in every store,” said Davis, who argues that a legalized lottery would represent the most pervasive form of gambling in Alabama. “It’s a top-down special interest for people who are trying to set themselves up for a government partnership to take Alabamians money.”

Lawmakers view

Some incumbent lawmakers are banking on lottery and gambling to be a topic voters will want more details about during the upcoming campaign. Already, some prospective candidates for 2026 are answering questions about the issue. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, flirting with a governor’s run, has said he anticipates the public getting a chance to vote on the matter someday.

Sen. Andrew Jones, R-Centre, a supporter of a comprehensive gambling package and whose district abuts Georgia, said he believes there will be more repercussions for incumbent lawmakers who voted against the comprehensive plan last session.

“I think attitudes have shifted in the past decade or so,” Jones said about lottery. “I have folks who tell me they will never play the lottery or have moral issues (on gambling), and perhaps lottery. But they would support it and want it because they see the money going across the state line to places like Georgia.”

According to a 2020 report by the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama (PARCA), $270 million to $386 million could be generated in annual revenue from an Alabama state lottery. The Alabama Department of Revenue’s past projections pegged the revenue even higher, at around $354 million to $438 million each year.

PARCA also projected casino gambling bringing in more than $400 million each year. Electronic gaming, according to the 2020 figures, could lure in more than $260 million annually.

Sen. Chris Elliott, R-Josephine, who voted against the gambling package last year, said there are constituents “who are very keen on this issue” on both sides.

I think when you engage with them individually and are able to explain how I voted for this, they seem to understand,” said Elliott, who voted down the legislation out of concerns over an expansion of electronic gambling and other items within the legislation he felt were “untenable.”

Sen. Greg Albritton, R-Atmore, who has carried the past two gambling and lottery packages, said he believes the issue could play out in the campaigns next year. Albritton, who also voted against the plan last year, represents a Senate district that includes Wind Creek Casino in Atmore, which is owned and operated by the Poarch Band of Creek Indians (PCI).

“It comes down to politics and the ‘Big Mules’ in the state who don’t want another mule in the corral,” said Albritton, referring to a term utilized by politicians to oppose powerful political coalitions consisting of agricultural and business interests in Alabama.

Democratic opening

Democratic lawmakers and officials, who have long been in the legislative minority, believe gambling and lottery creates a wedge issue within the Alabama GOP, and a possible advantage for their party.

The 2026 statewide elections are also occurring during the national midterms regarded as a national referendum on the sitting president’s first two years in office.

“A lottery is the ever-dangling, never consumed carrot of the Alabama Legislature,” said Sheena Gamble, spokesperson with the Alabama Democratic Party. “The fact that Alabama refuses to consider lottery while (the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE) massacres our allocated federal dollars already to the tune of $236 million is, at this point, criminal.”

Gamble said, “We can’t afford not to expand our state revenue since our reliance on the federal government is coming to an end.”

Sen. Vivian Figures, D-Mobile, said she believes it’s a pressing issue.

“Gambling is related to bringing in more revenues to Alabama,” she said. “It could potentially become a big campaign issue because of the additional revenues brought to the state in light of the revenues being taken from the state.”