ORLANDO, Fla. – All eyes remain on Invest 91L in the northeastern Gulf. Overnight, the National Hurricane Center increased the chance of tropical development to 60% over the next two days and 60% over the next seven days as the area of low pressure continues to become better organized. While the circulation is improving, the shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat disorganized. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system today.
As the system drifts west and eventually northwest, the greatest impacts, including the potential for heavy rain, will stay focused on Florida’s west coast, the Panhandle, and portions of the northern Gulf Coast. For Central Florida, the system’s westward track actually means our rain chances will gradually begin to decrease.
Today, our highest rain chances will be across our western counties, including Lake, Marion, and Sumter, where rain chances climb to around 50%-60%. Most other areas have about a 40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Even though storms will not be widespread, any that develop could become strong. The Storm Prediction Center continues to place most of Central Florida under a Level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather. The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 55 mph, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Localized rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible where storms linger, with isolated higher amounts that could lead to minor flooding.
Temperatures will remain seasonably hot, with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s and heat index values climbing between 100 and 107 degrees.
Looking ahead, as the Gulf low pulls farther away and weakens, our rain chances continue to trend downward through the workweek. Daily afternoon storms will still be possible, but coverage should become more isolated, allowing for more sunshine and a gradual warming trend into the middle and latter part of the week.
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