Swing-state polling pushes Trump over 280 electoral votes, into presidency

New surveys from the seven states likely to be closely contested in November hold good news for those who want a second Donald Trump presidency.

The Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin polls present a path for Trump to eclipse the 270 electoral votes needed to win, giving him multiple paths back to the White House — if these numbers hold up in the ballot box.

Trump takes four of these states in Emerson College’s estimation, though with marginal leads.

In Arizona, where 11 electoral votes are up for grabs, the former president leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49% to 47%. 

The Grand Canyon State is unique in that it’s the only one of the seven here where Trump actually bests Harris with women, 50% to 47%, suggesting disillusionment with the border czar extends to both genders. 

In Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is even more tenuous, but it’s still there: 49% to 48% in each. If those numbers hold, that’s another 51 electoral votes for the Republican ticket.

Worth noting: Trump has maintained 49% during a series of these Emerson/The Hill polls in the Keystone State, suggesting to pollster Spencer Kimball he may have hit a ceiling. But with multiple candidates in the field, a plurality may be enough in Pennsylvania. 

The poll shows a dead heat in the other two blue-wall states Harris must win to stay in the White House; Michigan and Wisconsin see the candidates tied at 49%. 

Kimball says splits among organized labor explain part of the dynamic in the blue-wall battlegrounds. Where the veep is stronger, she doesn’t trail Trump.

“Voters in union households break for Harris by 10 points in Michigan (54% to 44%) and by 26 points in Wisconsin (62% to 36%),” Kimball said. “In Pennsylvania, they favor Trump 53% to 43%.”

Harris is only ahead in Nevada, and that’s by the narrowest of spreads: 48% to 47%.

As with many polls, though, Trump seems to lack downballot coattails, with numerous candidates for Senate and one aspiring governor down to Democratic opponents.

In Arizona, Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego 50% to 43%. He’s expanded his lead by 2 since Emerson was last in the field.

Michigan Republican Mike Rogers is down 5 in his bid to replace outgoing Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a margin that’s held steady in Emerson’s reckoning.

Nevada Republican Sam Brown is in an 8-point hole against incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen, who has 50% support to his 42%.

Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin is 4 points up on GOP challenger Eric Hovde, 50% to 46%. She’s gained a point since the last time this poll was conducted.

And scandal-ridden North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson trails Attorney General Josh Stein in the race for governor, 50% to 34%. That margin has doubled since the previous Emerson survey.

The one bright spot for Republicans is in Pennsylvania, where Dave McCormick’s challenge to Democratic Sen. Bob Casey appears durable. Though he’s down 48% to 46%, he’s substantially closed a 5-point spread in the last Emerson poll.