Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will take the debate stage Tuesday night with the goal of doing as little harm as possible to the top of the ticket in what will likely be the conclusion of this year’s debate season.
The Vance-Walz debate is expected to be the final match-up between the tickets and the last time candidates will have the opportunity to address a national audience before Election Day.
It also marks one of the last major moments of the campaign, putting pressure on both Vance and Walz to avoid fumbling the ball and to provide cover for former President Trump and Vice President Harris.
“The only rule in the debate that matters is: protect the top of the ticket. The VP debate doesn’t move anything unless you don’t protect the top of the ticket,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who has experience in a vice presidential debate, having been former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s running mate in 2016.
“The only thing that’s a ‘thou shalt not’ is the thou shalt not let an attack on your top of the ticket go unanswered. You’re a goaltender trying to stop shots on goal against the top of the ticket,” Kaine explained, adding that he has confidence in Walz. “He’s done this before. He’s going to be fine.”
Vice presidential debates have often produced memorable zingers, but they’ve rarely come close to presidential match-ups in their effects on a campaign.
Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan and an expert on presidential debates, said former Vice President Dan Quayle made “the biggest mistake ever” in 1988 when he compared himself to President Kennedy during the debate against former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas), but then-Vice President H.W. Bush still won the race in a landslide that year.
But the stakes could be higher this year.
“Debates are the only thing that gets that many tens of millions of viewers, which is impressive in today’s media landscape,” Kall said. “And so there’s not going to be another presidential debate. This is kind of the final closing argument that those undecided voters get, and so both candidates have to be aware of that.”
Trump’s campaign has a long history of trying to lower expectations about his opponent and raise the bar for his own performance, but it’s trying a different tactic with Walz.
During a call with reporters on Monday, Jason Miller, a top Trump campaign adviser, told reporters that the Minnesota governor will be a formidable opponent and made clear they are taking him seriously.
He also added that Walz’s “Minnesota nice” persona will take a backseat to him trying to damage Vance at every turn.
“Tim Walz is very good in debates. I want to repeat that: Tim Walz is very good in debates. Really good. He’s been a politician for nearly 20 years,” Miller said. “He’ll be very well prepared for tomorrow night.”
However, a number of Vance’s Senate GOP colleagues are telegraphing equally high expectations for the first-term senator.
Several were quick to point to Vance’s ability to be quick on his feet, well prepared and articulate well on Trump’s behalf. And they hope he can score some points against Harris.
“There’s zero pressure on him, personally. … This debate needs to be all about Kamala Harris and her record. It’s a great opportunity for him … to prosecute the case against her and her record,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said.
“It’s not going to be about him. It’s not even going to be about Walz. It’s going to be about Kamala. If it’s not about Kamala — if the debate’s about something else, that’ll be a missed opportunity, but I don’t think he’ll let that happen,” Hawley continued.
But Vance may be facing pressure to contend with his own low approval ratings.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate, Walz is viewed more favorably by 40.1 percent of voters compared to 36.4 percent unfavorable. Vance, meanwhile, is underwater by a double-digit margin after months of attacks for his past comments about “childless cat ladies” and, more recently, his false claim that Haitian migrants are eating pets in Springfield, Ohio.
Walz is widely expected to bring up those topics during the debate.
A source familiar with Walz’s preparation said his plan is to stick to who he is rather than turn into a “slick debater” like Vance.
“I’m sure Walz will attack him personally, and I would think that JD would just ignore that,” Hawley said. “Wave that off, and go right back to Kamala.”
Kall said the candidates’ focus should be almost “explicitly” on the top of the ticket because voters will make their decisions based on their thoughts on Trump and Harris rather than their running mates.
He said the natural reaction is to go after the person standing across the stage, but Vance and Walz need to have discipline to focus on the “actual target.”
Beyond that, Vance and Walz will want to briefly discuss their backgrounds, with neither having high name recognition compared to Trump and Harris, Kall said.
“Both of them have very compelling, unique biographies, and you need to talk about political accomplishments they’ve achieved so far and talk about this philosophy, vision” that they have for the country, Kall said.
What may be more uncertain is whether this event will truly be the last word to a national audience before the election. Puck News reported in recent days that Trump has had second thoughts about not taking part in a second debate with the vice president after her team attempted to goad him into one immediately after their Sept. 10 meeting.
Trump has continued to publicly nix the idea, saying that it’s “just too late” for another one — an idea Harris disputes.
“Their debate should not be the last word,” Harris said of the vice presidential debate during a weekend rally in Las Vegas. “I think he should debate again. The American people have a right to hear us discuss the issues. … I’m all in. I’m all in, even if my opponent is ready to fold.”
Brett Samuels and Alex Gangitano contributed.
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